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The core hypothesis is that the world will continue to need vast amounts of steel and cement. I was discussing with Ukrainians that the rebuild for the residential sector should be wood, easy to factory fabricate, lasts just as long as “traditional” and a much better thermal performance.
Two points: Sitra in 2018 produced an outstandingly good report on the circular economy – EU could reduce primary steel consumption from 110MTs to perhaps 30MTs – which makes it relatively simple to move to direct reduction of iron ore using hydrogen. Australian iron ore companies have now understood that shipping semi-finished product (or even finished product) is much more profitable than just selling iron ore. Blessed with more sunshine than you can wave a stick at, PV heading towards an LCOE of 1eurocent/kWh ( and thus H2 at a price that oil & gas companies will struggle to compete with) it is not difficult to see the attractions of selling to the Chinese et al – low/zero carbon finished steel. Where this leaves Chinese steel producers is anybody’s guess.
Thanks for this excellent comment, Mike