Julian Wettengel writes on the Clean Energy Wire website about recent research from the Deutsche Bank Research unit that electricity is set to increase more slowly than previously assumed in the coming five years, with uncertainty over industry as a key driver of demand.
Industry greatest unknown in Germany’s future electricity demand – Deutsche Bank Research
Electricity consumption in Germany is set to increase more slowly than previously assumed in the coming five years, with uncertainty over industry as a key driver of demand, said Deutsche Bank (DB) Research in a paper.
It highlighted the energy needs of new data centres, as well as the electrification of transport, heating, and industry as key potential drivers of higher demand. “Only regarding the electrification of industrial processes are we sceptical that electricity demand will rise permanently and significantly,” said the bank.
Energy-intensive processes in the chemical sector, metal production, and building material manufacturing faced high hurdles due to costs and competition from abroad, and relevant products could be imported in future. “The companies concerned may be more inclined to shift corresponding production processes abroad over time,” Deutsche Bank said. It added that demand would depend on political framework conditions and technical progress.
Last week, a government-commissioned research report showed a “robust” growth of future electricity demand in a wide variety of scenarios. However, projections differ widely, especially for the period until 2030. While the report was seen as a well-conducted meta-study of existing scenarios, the renewables industry and environmental NGOs voiced concerns that it could slow the expansion of technologies like wind and solar.
Deutsche Bank Research stressed that the political conclusions the federal government draws from it are much more important than the report itself.
The economy ministry had labelled the report as a “reality check” for the energy transition and said it aimed to put a greater policy focus on affordability and supply security alongside decarbonisation. Minister Katherina Reiche presented ten key measures, which include plans to abolish fixed feed-in tariffs for renewables and remuneration during times of negative prices. However, she has not yet provided details on when or how this should happen. Other measures also remained vague, with more clarity expected in the coming months following further negotiations within the coalition government.
In its report, Deutsche Bank called the proposed measures “reasonable” and welcomed the strengthened focus on cost-efficiency. It added that the pace of expansion for some renewables can be “expected to decrease due to the use of more market-based instruments and a reduction in subsidies.”
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Energy in Demand - Sustainable Energy - Rod Janssen 
Not a surprise, EVs growing a bit, heat pumps not that popular (due to
high elec costs) and no reflection into end user bills that renewables
are much cheaper than fossil-based systems. As for eliminating
(reducing) compensation for renewables in times where there is lots of
RES elec (& prices crash), building out more renewables will cause more
price crashes (and increasing curtailment – which one can see in the
Benelux-DE area). The problem is a total & complete failure to reform
elec markets. The marginal pricing system worked +/- when there was
fossil-based systems (input cost, transformation process, elec price
based on inputs+transformation). How does that work with renewables (or
hydro or nuclear) where the cost is all up front and there is no
“marginal cost” – it doesn’t. That said, the marginal market fanatics
(“our market which art in heaven” etc) persist in keeping it going I am
reminded of Monty Python & the parrot sketch – dead parrot nailed to
perch. Until the market is split (easy to do btw) then price absurdities
will continue. Will any of this solve elec demand? well at least it
would start to price elec @ the cost of production. If you are not doing
that then you are not serious – & Euro elec markets have not been
serious for +/- more than a decade.
Thanks Mike. Germany certainly has a numbers of issues to address if they are to get on a more sustainable path.
I totally agree that ”marginal” pricing model is not what it is needed. The coupling markets theory which EC is promoting certainly will not bring the ”welfare” claimed !
Markets are different, as resources and technologies and above all, indeed, IRES and some fossil sources , each producing ”different products” will not ”couple”.
Name of the game should be ”price elec @ the cost of production” !…THAT SHOULD BE THE GOD & HEAVEN !
EU’s “Single market” has much to answer for – the dolts assume that cos
one electron looks like another corss-border elec trading makes things
better – & hey! the traders that benefit produced a report to show all
that lovely “social welfare” whilst avoiding a reality: x-bordeer
trading is a “pass-the-parcel game where the surplus eventually ends up
in: Scandics (PHS), France or Poland & building more x-border
connections is the answer (well it is if you are a trader – & you get
the great EU public to pay for the interconnector).
BTW about traders: Since Romania has no PHSP (pumped hydro storage plant), though, we have a project of 1000 MW since more than 30 years…NOT IMPLEMENTED !, I have made a power system modelling, based on 2024 results (all the plants in RO operated hourly on the DAM, imports/exports, etc.), as they were recorded, and a scenario WITH A PSPH of 1000 MW AS IF IT WOULD HAVE BEEN IN OPERATION (incremental analysis WITH and WITHOUT the project), to see what happens.
Shocking results:
Thanks so much for this detailed comment, Catalin
These are excellent comments by Catalin & can be generalised – that in-country storage is a better option than x-border trading. Of course the storage could take various forms & it is somewhat surprising that Romania has no PHS. But now we know why, which, in turn begs the question – what other lobbying have the traders done to prevent a coherent approach to energy systems? Keep in mind, many/most of the traders are banks & finance houses of various sorts. They bring zero benefit & only ideological imbeciles (I’m looking @ you DG ENER) would think otherwise.