Replacing about a third of EU’s 86 million residential fossil fuel boilers with heat pumps could cut those households’ final energy consumption by 36% and their CO2 emissions by 28%.
Heating of buildings accounts for almost 40% of final energy consumption and 36% of energy-related GHG emissions in the EU. Within these, residential buildings account for about two-thirds of the final energy consumption and for around 70% of GHG emissions. No wonder energy saving and emission reduction in the sector are high on the climate agenda.
Heat pumps emit less GHG and offer higher efficiency than traditional boilers that run on gas or oil, thus usually reducing heating bills. The JRC report The Heat Pump Wave: Opportunities and Challenges looks into the potential impact of manufacturing and installing heat pumps on a large scale.
It concludes that while there are barriers, overall, the switch from fossil fuel boilers to heat pumps, powered by electricity, will not only be healthier for planet, but it will strengthen EU energy security and usually lower heating bills. The need for rapid uptake of heat pumps for residential heating will require a pool of skilled installers and technicians, presenting the opportunity for the creation of new jobs and at the same time the challenge of ensuring sufficient number of skilled professionals.
The European Heat Pump Association estimates that 500 000 additional skilled workers are needed by 2030, whereas the European Heating Industry estimates it to be 750 000 new jobs.
EU’s buildings and heat pumps market
The EU aims to cut the use of fossil fuels as well as its reliance on Russian oil supply before 2030, in line with the REPowerEU action plan. Central to the EU’s climate policies designed to achieve this goal is the need to improve the energy performance of heating in buildings, given their high share in energy consumption and GHG emissions. Europe’s buildings are in many cases old and inefficient: 40% of the EU buildings stock was built before 1960 and 90% before 1990, thus prior to the implementation of EU energy efficiency legislation.
In 2021, heat pumps accounted for a market share of 21.5% of all domestic individual heating systems use for space heating systems, although unevenly distributed among EU countries. Finland had a market share of 97%, while Germany and the Netherlands a mere 16% and 13% respectively.
The analysis indicates that the additional strain on power grids due to the increased electricity demand in terms of electricity generation mix and power prices will be relatively moderate and can be further mitigated with the integration of smart controls.
Considering that there are approximately 68 million gas and 18 million oil boilers in residential buildings in the EU, a rapid scale-up of heat pumps is necessary, but it does present some challenges. Replacing 30 million of the total of 86 million residential fossil fuel boilers with heat pumps could cut the final energy consumption of those households by 36% and their CO2 emissions by 28%.
The ambitious target also presents an opportunity for the European heat pump industry. The industry is well-established and innovative, world leader in several heat pump segments. However, it remains to be seen whether the European industry can scale up quickly enough to meet the demand. The EU currently holds a strong position in innovation, but efforts are needed to maintain this edge, especially as value creation increasingly moves to digitalisation and system integration. Also, the competition, particularly from China, is growing.
The EU’s heat pump supply chain is still vulnerable in few areas, including a large dependence on imported compressors and semi-conductors. There is also lack of skilled installers and service technicians, required to evaluate the type of installation and its feasibility, and substantial upfront costs could be unaffordable for low-income households. Moreover, the phase out of fluorinated gases (F-gases), powerful greenhouse gases used as cooling agents, needs to be accomplished in the short term to avoid any additional direct emissions from the new installed heat pumps.
Heat pumps are emerging as a crucial solution to achieve the EU decarbonisation targets and independence from Russia’s fossil fuels by 2030, as well as its ambition to tackle energy poverty due to lower energy bills.
To facilitate and accelerate the deployment of this technology, the European Commission is working on the Heat Pump Action Plan, which will
- strengthen partnership between the Commission, EU countries and the sector
- improve communication to all interest groups and facilitate skills partnership for rolling out heat pumps
- ensure a favourable regulatory and policy framework and accessible financing
External link
Energy in Demand - Sustainable Energy - Rod Janssen 
I’ll preface with what follows with a couple of observations 1. Have worked with JRC on various subjects in the past (not heat pumps). 2. There appeared to be no experts on power networks contributing to the report.
Page 5: the last two paragraphs are contradictory. The 1st suggests that HPs can be operated “flexibly” (modulated?), the second talks about constant temperatures (which implies quasi constant HP operation). It is one or the other – which is it? Page 6 2nd para notes the impact of HPs on local networks. In 2019, Challoch Energy & PWR spent two man years analysing the impact of HPs. EV charging, PV and batteries on elec distribution networks. The conclusion was that elec networks run-out of capacity at HP penetrations of circa 30% (& that mean no home EV charging). Capacity could be boosted through the use of H2-powered mCHP (e.g. fuel cells).
The findings were confirmed in meetings with assorted Euro DNOs. Also in a 2023 report from Switzerland (Impact of Heat Pump and Cogeneration Integration on Power Distribution Grids Based on Transition Scenarios for Heating in Urban Areas).
Overall the treatment by the report of HPs’ impact on the MV/LV network, which is covered mostly on pages 35 and 36 is pathetic and consists mostly, of well used memes. Had the report noted that significant work needs to be addressed regarding HP impacts on MV/LV networks, that would be fair enough. But the glossing over of a massive problem reflects very poorly on the writers. By the way, the “massive problem” is not about changing a couple of transformers, it is about the large-scale renewal of large parts of the EU’s urban and suburban LV networks.
I was in contact with DG ENER a year or two ago. At the time they were just about to throw a large box of money on research covering this subject (we were happy to let them have our own work for nothing …..but hey – the Commission loves to waste EU taxpayers money). I urged them to make sure that some of those undertaking the research were ex-DNO engineers. I never heard anything ever again. As it stands, sometime before 2030, the EU and its institutions will discover that MV/LV networks are running out of capacity to support HPs and EV charging. It will give me no pleasure in being right. However, it is a reflection on how EU institutions and policy making seem to be designed to fail, each and every time. & the core reason? EU is an epistemology free zone: what do we know, why do we know it, how do we know it, are we sure we are right.
Thanks so much, Mike, for this very detailed comment. I will let people at JRC know.