Assuming France achieves its decarbonisation and reindustrialisation targets, electricity consumption could rise to 580-640 TWh by 2035, equivalent to what the grid operator had forecasted for 2050 in its “Future Energy 2050” report published at the end of 2021. In an article on the EURACTIV website, Paul Messad discusses the recent report from France’s electricity network operator.
France’s electricity consumption set to rise sharply by 2030
France will reach the level of electricity consumption expected in 2050 as early as 2030-2035, according to the latest forecasts by RTE, the country’s electricity network operator. However, many uncertainties remain.
On Wednesday (7 June), RTE published a progress report on its forecast for France’s electricity mix between 2030 and 2035, which will be ready in September.
Assuming France achieves its decarbonisation and reindustrialisation targets, electricity consumption could rise to 580-640 TWh by 2035, equivalent to what the grid operator had forecasted for 2050 in its “Future Energy 2050” report published at the end of 2021.
This new scenario is therefore “one of transformation, even revolution: both on an industrial level and in terms of practical uses”, explains Thomas Veyrenc, head of strategy and evaluation at RTE.
“Our path is based on the sum of the needs that have been brought to our attention, sector by sector,” adds Xavier Piechaczyk, RTE’s Executive Board Chairman, interviewed by Le Monde.
The needs are increasing as the industry revises its electricity requirements to compensate for the lack of Russian gas since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, explains RTE.
RTE couldn’t have anticipated this in its scenarios for 2050, published before the Russian aggression, nor could it have anticipated the EU deal on increasing the share of renewable energy to 42.5% of final energy consumption in the EU by 2030, reached at the end of March. The EU’s share of renewables currently amounts to 22%.
The new targets also bolster the resources needed to achieve a 55% cut in the EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared with 1990 levels, as set out in the “Fit for 55” package of July 2021.
This proves that “the EU is finally being seen as a standard-bearer for the economy’s decarbonisation. Its targets are becoming drivers for speed rather than constraints,” Phuc-Vinh Nguyen, an energy policy researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, told EURACTIV.fr.
Agreement on the EU’s renewable energy directive brings to a close an 18-month process to upgrade the bloc’s climate policies and achieve a 55% net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
4 levers for action
RTE has identified four levers of action to offset the rise in electricity demand, mainly in industry, transport and the digital sector.
Two of these involve reducing energy consumption through energy sufficiency and efficiency measures. By 2050, France aims to reduce its overall energy consumption by 40% compared to 2022, cutting it from around 1,600 TWh to 930 TWh.
Fossil fuel consumption will therefore have to be drastically reduced to around zero and will be offset by low-carbon energies, whether electric or non-electric.
If nuclear energy is stabilised, it could supply 350 to 360 TWh of electricity by 2030, based on a “cautious” assumption, according to RTE. This would represent over half of the country’s electricity consumption by 2030.
Renewable energies could also produce between 250 and 300 TWh of electricity per year by 2035, more than doubling current production (120 TWh).
“It is ambitious, given our experience in France,” says Thomas Veyrenc.
France is indeed behind on EU renewable energy targets. To catch up, the government passed a law in April aimed at speeding up the deployment of renewable energies.
What’s more, achieving 250 TWh of renewables in the energy mix “is in line with what is already being seen elsewhere in Europe”, says Veyrenc.
In 2022, Germany produced around 250 TWh of electricity from renewable sources, representing more than 40% of its electricity mix (582 TWh), according to figures from the German working group on energy balances (AGEB).
German electricity consumption is expected to reach around 750 TWh by 2030, with 80% coming from renewable sources.
In its strategic long-term vision presented in November 2018, the European Commission set out a similar share of renewables in the EU’s electricity mix, but by 2050.
Not updated since COVID and the Ukraine war, the Commission’s strategic vision predicted that electricity consumption would account for up to 53% of the EU’s energy mix by mid-century. In 2022, electricity accounted for around a quarter of the EU’s energy production, for a total of around 16,000 to 17,000 TWh.
In a total gas phase-out scenario, the leading German think tank on green transition, Agora Energiewende, forecasts EU electricity production of 3,300 TWh in 2030 and more than 6,000 TWh in 2050.
Many uncertainties
But while these prospects are a “very good thing”, especially in France, they still need to be “confirmed”, says Nguyen.
The instability of the EU’s energy system, with uncertainties over gas, hydrogen and synthetic fuels share in the future mix, means that there are major differences between the scenarios presented.
Scientists also point to the need for flexibility and storage that a more electrified energy mix will entail, constraining production. The strengthening of European interconnections is also one of the key points of the future mix.
Network operator RTE told EURACTIV.fr that these last points will be addressed at the presentation of the Generation Adequacy Report in September 2023.
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Energy in Demand - Sustainable Energy - Rod Janssen 
Although the article purports to be written in French, it certainly had some English understatement: “It is ambitious, given our experience in France,” says Thomas Veyrenc (referring to the RES target). France in the RES community is regarded as a disaster zone when it comes to RES: permitting takes years (decades?) and this is before one engages with RTE/ERDF.
The article whilst focused on policy measures fails to recognise an important fact: as the proportion of RES in the electricity mix increases past circa 30%, the proportion of non-absorbed RES electricity increases in a non-linear fashion. RES will account for circa 35% of elec in France by 2030 – possibly 40% by 2035.
This is where Germany becomes interesting. RES in Germany accounts for 40% of absorbed electricity. There is a growing (RES) surplus, more than 8% now. If the Germans hits their 80% targets (if!) then actual RES generation will be 120% of demand. The reason for this is the stochastic nature of RES. Much loved “flexibility” can make a modest difference on a day to day basis – but not when you have vast amounts of RES swilling around the system.
PWR & Challoch have modelled this – using ENTSO-E data and member state RES ambitions. The model does not paint a pretty picture. One possible approach to converting vast amounts of elec surplus is H2, mainly because it can scale in a way that batteries etc cannot. However, recognition of this reality is at the “early-days” stage. As for the elec & gas TSOs, there is some discussion on the convergence of the two vectors – but that’s it.
Given past (in)action and a congenital inability to react in a timely fashion to, for example, the recent disastrous energy price rises, it is unlikely that regulators such as RTE even understand the problem (or its scale) let alone solutions. I know, cos I’ve spoken to them.
As for current RES surpluses and “where-do-they-go?”, the EU electricity system currently engages in a game of pass-the-electricity-parcel. Today (& tomorrow) is nice and sunny so the game will be Dk+DE to NL to BE to FR. At each stage wholesale prices are driven lower (usually into negative territory) until France is reached. Don’t believe me – take a look at ENTSO-E’s transparency platform – the data is there for all to see. Such a situation is unsustainable given EU RES ambitions. Thus an engineered approached focused on systems and energy vectors is required. That this is not even under consideration is a reflection of the paucity of thought in EU institutions.
Excellent comment,Mike