Britain’s energy transition: From warm front to cold homes: the cost of scrapping energy efficiency programmes

With no current programmes in place to address the issue of fuel poverty, it seems that the government is looking to claim progress by manipulating figures rather than taking effective action, says Andrew Warren, chair of the British Energy Efficiency Federation in a column in the March issue of Energy in Buildings & Industry.

 

The abandonment of fuel poverty measures

One aspect that all too many British homes still have in common is that they are old and cold and draughty, and expensive to run. There  are so many jokes about how poor the average home is in energy performance terms, we are always listed as  having just about the least energy efficient housing stock in western Europe.

Which is why it has been great that there have been nationwide energy saving programmes around for the past 30 years or more. Last month the Office for National Statistics produced its latest survey. This revealed that the fastest growing sector of the economy in employment terms has been in the green economy – led by those working in energy efficiency .

In 2024 the survey calculates the total number of people employed full time involved with making, distributing or installing energy efficiency products. There were around 130,000 gainfully employed full time in this sector. Making up almost 45% of existing green jobs. Living in every constituency in the land.  But that was in 2024.

The rise and fall of ECO

For the past decade, the main energy saving programmes have not been funded by the Government, at least not in England. All three of the devolved nations have long funded energy saving programmes for their low-income citizens. We did so in England , until the Coalition government abandoned the enormously successful Warm Front programme. Instead the programme, called the Energy Company Obligation, or ECO for short,  has been undertaken under the auspices of  those who sell electricity or gas.

Since its launch in January 2013, ECO has supported installing approximately 4.1 million energy efficiency measures across Great Britain. Helping to reduce energy bills and keep families and their children warm through the winter months. This has been the main driver to help reduce fuel poverty. But not yet to eliminate it.

And then,  in her November 2025 budget ,the Chancellor decided to stop that Obligation altogether. Simply in order to be able to claim that scrapping this (socially responsible) measure would take £150 off the average fuel bill. In practice, it already looks as though fuel bills will drop by a far lower amount, just  £117 on average.

Consequentially, from next month there will be no longer be any requirement  placed upon any of the energy suppliers to help their customers save fuel. In its place we have a void. Although the new Warm Homes Plan signals there may be some equivalent future government-funded schemes for the sector, the anticipated 12 to 18-month timeline before these reach delivery raises the critical question.

Will there be a  supply chain still in place to deliver the Government’s ambitions when the time comes? How many of those 130,000 tradespeople who were working in this sector in 2024  still be in work?

Lost jobs

According to a recent industry survey undertaken by the Installation Assurance Authority Federation, a leading representative body in the retrofit sector, a staggering 12,100 skilled professionals have already been made redundant, following the Chancellor’s Budget announcement. With a further 79,800 estimated to be made redundant within the next 12 months. Throughout the country comes news of long-established installation companies retrenching hard.

Next month for the first time in over 30 years there will be no designated  nationwide programme to try to reduce the number of households in fuel poverty.

Defining fuel poverty

How should we define who is in fuel poverty? I quote from the (then) Minister for Energy Consumers, Miatta Fahnbulleh, in her Ministerial Foreword published in the government’s  most recent Fuel Poverty Consultation in 2024. In this she stated that:

‘The number of households, required to spend more than 10% of their income after housing costs on their energy bills ,soared to 8.9 million in 2023, more than double the previous rate’.

That “!0% of disposable income”  figure is the long-standing definition of fuel poverty, as still pursued by all three devolved administrations. It was also the definition employed by the Blair Government in 2001 when it passed the Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act. This  Act set out a timetable by when fuel poverty would be, not just ameliorated, but abolished.

But when this latest Fuel Poverty Strategy was finally issued ,on 27th January 2026, those ministerial numbers had suddenly altered .It contained a  commitment to eradicate fuel poverty in  just 1 million households by 2030.

Massaging the numbers

What proportion of the problem would that number solve? Extraordinarily, on page 36 the new Strategy stated blandly ‘‘there were 2.7 million households in fuel poverty in 2024.” Very different from those 8.9 million households identified in its’ consultation document. On page 17  the Warm Homes Plan repeated  the same lower figure.

The new Minister, Martin McCluskey. even referred to this curious new 2.7 million figure in his Ministerial Foreword to the new Fuel Poverty Strategy. The reason for the difference? The Government was apparently using a new definition of fuel poverty, achieved by ‘measuring fuel poverty confirming that the Low-Income Low Energy Efficiency (LILEE) measure will also be retained’. A definition used by absolutely nobody else.

Thus, 6.2 million households have been officially defined out of fuel poverty. Those people are not just cold. They appear to have been conveniently  forgotten by a callous officialdom.

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