New analysis shows EU gas demand set to drop 7% by 2030, making new gas investments risky

EU gas demand is expected to fall 7% by 2030, according to a new report from global energy think tank Ember. The findings suggest that any new gas capacity will become stranded assets.

Ember’s analysis of EU Member States’ national plans shows that EU gas demand is set to fall from 326 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 to 302 bcm in 2030, a 7% drop. This extends a trend already in progress, with gas demand dropping 19% between 2021 and 2023, from 404 bcm to 326 bcm.

This long term trend of gas decline stands in contrast to recent proposals to increase LNG import capacity, which could rise by 54% by 2030. Given the planned gas decline by that date this additional capacity would be a significant oversupply, with new investments risking becoming stranded assets in the near future.

The report reviews data from EU Member States’ National Energy and Climate Plans to provide an outlook of gas demand and other energy sector indicators through 2030. As of May, the most recent submission cycle for national targets has now effectively drawn to a close.

The EU’s transition to clean power continues to gain momentum

Alongside the drop in expected gas demand, national targets show renewables continue to grow. Ember analysis reveals that Member States intend to double their total wind and solar capacity over the next five years, putting renewables on track to generate 66% of all EU electricity by 2030.

Also, the share of electricity in the EU’s final energy demand is rising – the electrification rate is  expected to increase from 23% today to 30% in 2030. It aligns with the expanding use of electric technologies – for instance in heating, where heat pumps are gaining popularity replacing fossil-consuming appliances. This signals that even beyond the power sector, EU countries plan to meet future energy needs with more clean electricity and less fossil gas.

The report is available here and more detailed data can be explored in Ember’s Live EU NECP Tracker which provides country-level comparisons of NECP targets.

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