Audrey Garric writes on the Le Monde website about latest developments in France’s energy transition. GHG emissions rose again in the third quarter of 2024. Other indicators are in the red, such as the pace of energy retrofits and vehicle electrification.
The green transition: Is France veering off course?
It’s probably not the Christmas present the French Green Transition Ministry was expecting. The decline in French greenhouse gas emissions is slowing. They fell by 2.4% over the first three quarters of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, excluding carbon sinks. This reduction is considerably less than that recorded (-6%) in the first nine months of 2023 compared with 2022. More specifically, carbon emissions were reduced in the first two quarters of 2024 (-5% and -2.2% respectively) but rose slightly in the third quarter (+0.5%), according to provisional data published by the Technical Interprofessional Center for the Study of Atmospheric Pollution on Friday, December 27.
Meeting France’s climate targets implies doubling the pace, since the aim is to reduce emissions by an average of 4.7% per year between 2022 and 2030. By 2023, they had fallen by 5.8% compared to 2022, with all major emitting sectors down – a good result.
“This slowdown, fortunately, still leaves us on the right trajectory. Given the efforts we’ve made over the past two years, we’re not falling behind,” said Environment Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher on radio station RTL on December 27. “But this reminds us that we must not let our guard down.”
“The fact that emissions are on the rise again should be an electroshock for this new government,” said Anne Bringault, director of programs for the Climate Action Network, which brings together some 40 organizations working on the issue. She believes that this trend was “predictable,” and that the emissions reductions in 2023 were linked to “rather cyclical” factors, such as a milder winter, whereas the government points to structural causes, in other words, the result of public policies.
Far too few energy-efficiency retrofits
In the third quarter of 2024, the power generation and industry sectors continued to lower their emissions, thanks to the reduced use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) in electricity generation. Buildings, on the other hand, saw a sharp rise (+11.8%) in carbon emissions, linked to heating in the residential and tertiary sectors in September, a cool month. “We are seeing [in 2024] an increase in the installation of gas boilers, which is not good news, and an increase in the use of fuel oil,” added Pannier-Runacher.
Road transport emissions also rose slightly (+1.1%), particularly in July, although they remained at a lower level than in the same period from 2019 to 2022. Emissions from domestic air transport are falling, but those from international flights are soaring. Lastly, agricultural emissions appear to be stagnating overall (+0.3%).
In addition to CO2 emissions, other indicators are in the red, confirming a slowdown in the ecological transition. At a presentation to the Académie du Climat on December 19, the Secretariat General for Ecological Planning (SGPE), responsible for coordinating the government’s green policies, revealed some worrying trends. While “global” energy retrofits are certainly of a high quality (half of the projects record four class jumps in the energy performance diagnosis), their number is “very insufficient,” with 85,000 projects financed in 2024 compared to the 200,000 planned. Middle and upper-income households are renovating less than expected. In addition, 250,000 “gesture” renovations (window or boiler changes only) took place in 2024, compared to a target of 500,000.
In the transport sector, the most polluting, accounting for a third of national emissions, vehicle electrification is stagnating and lagging behind. In 2024, 299,000 new electric passenger vehicles were registered, slightly fewer than in 2023 and far short of the 430,000 forecast. The reduction since the beginning of December in the subsidy to purchase these vehicles is likely to further slow the trend. “The price of electric vehicles has come down,” explained the minister. “The issue is companies, which buy half as many electric cars as households. They’re not playing their part.” The transportation shift from cars to bikes, trains or buses is not happening fast enough.
No ‘strong political signal’
In agriculture and forestry, the consumption of plant protection products has not fallen since 2019, which means France is “lagging behind” the rest of the European Union. The share of organic farming is stagnating at 10%.
According to Bringault, players in the green transition are “scaling back their actions due to a lack of visibility” caused by political instability with changes of government, but also “stop and go on public policies” and the “drop in public support” for electric vehicles, renovation or the green fund, intended for local authorities. “This leaves us dependent on imported fossil fuels, particularly from Russia, and with very volatile prices,” she highlighted. “It’s a sword of Damocles hanging over household purchasing power.”
“While we’re still on track for 2024, our degree of confidence is lower for next year. We need to take new measures if we don’t want to fail in 2025,” warned a member of the SGPE, who prefers to remain anonymous. Another worried that “we haven’t seen any strong political signal that the slowdown in the ecological transition can be reversed.” “The ministerial fragmentation of ecological transition issues doesn’t help” he added, as Pannier-Runacher saw the contours of her ministry changed during the forming of François Bayrou’s government.
While she has taken over the management of forestry, the sea and fisheries, she is no longer in charge of energy, which returns to the Finance Ministry. Her ministry already lost transport and housing during the government of Michel Barnier. “I still have the decarbonization of all these sectors,” said the minister, who also slipped back to 12th position in the order of protocol within the government, far behind former environment minister Nicolas Hulot’s third position in 2017.
Questions remain about France’s ability to meet its targets. It’s a tall order: France must go from 373 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MTCO2EQ) in 2023 to 270 MTCO2EQ in 2030 in order to achieve a 50% drop in gross emissions between 1990 and 2030 – in other words, without the absorption of CO2 by forests or soils. The trajectory is even more complex when it comes to net emissions (with a target of -55%), due to the high mortality of forests, linked to global warming, disease and over-harvesting.
These objectives will be consolidated in the third national low-carbon strategy, the country’s climate roadmap, whose public consultation ended in mid-December. Its presentation was more than a year late, prompting fears among the French High Council for Climate Change that “the ambition of climate policy could be set back.”
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