Africa’s climate security needs to be prioritised at COP28

Climate change has been exacerbating tensions across Africa. Maurizio Geri, a former NATO analyst on the Middle East and North Africa, writes on the EURACTIV website that the continent’s climate security ought to be prioritised at COP28 so that the rise of militarism can be countered.

West must use COP28 to reverse climate neglect of Africa, or face new era of violence

A short-sighted military intervention is not the answer to the crisis in Niger. If the West fails to find new ways to empower African leaders to deal with the growing impacts of climate change, Russia will fill the vacuum and inflame recently sparked violence for decades to come.

Russia’s escalating presence in Africa is no mere coincidence. It’s capitalising on unprecedented economic and political turmoil, seeing it as a golden opportunity to exert influence and sow discord – all of which will end up at Western doors.

Yet many of my colleagues working in international security have missed the most crucial piece of the puzzle: the flashpoints for these rising trends of political discord are all climate hot zones. These are areas where the battle for dwindling resources is stoking the fires of violence and terrorism.

The coup in Niger is merely the latest in a string of military takeovers across West Africa, including Guinea, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad and Sudan.

Africa is currently experiencing an unprecedented surge in civil unrest, conflicts, government instability, protests and rioting across some 37 countries – up from 28 six years ago. Food insecurity is a major driver of this unrest, with Africa accounting for some of the most food-insecure countries.

This is not just due to weak institutions. Over the last century, climate change has driven a slow-burn ecosystem collapse across the Sahel. Indeed, the Sahel, Central Africa and the Horn of Africa are facing the longest drought in the region’s recent history. Decades of nomadic cattle herding, recurring droughts and poor rainfall have created a growing agricultural crisis.

In the resulting economic fallout, conflicts and civil unrest over land, water, and food have become endemic, leading to opportunities for military dictators and terrorist groups.

In response, the West has prioritised military training and assistance while neglecting the need to build resilience among rural communities. This short-sightedness has allowed Russia to consolidate its footholds in Africa. Russian forces are already embedded in the Central Africa Republic, Sudan, Mali and Burkina Faso and are rapidly looking to expand into Niger.

By 2050, Africa will be home to one in four people. Yet decades of failing to acknowledge the complex nexus between climate change, food insecurity, poverty and extremism now mean the West is in danger of losing its alliances across the continent.

That is why the West must urgently recalibrate its Africa policy. This means respecting African peoples and empowering them to build resilience against increasingly dangerous climate impacts.

The upcoming COP28 climate summit hosted by the UAE later this December is an ideal opportunity for change. In June, the UAE used its presidency of the COP28 summit to convene a ministerial debate on how to get the UN Security Council to “better integrate the impact of climate change on peace and security into its conflict prevention, resolution, and peacebuilding efforts”.

The discussion started here must continue at COP. Only by realising how security is intimately entwined with the environment can we protect both. That means recognising that the West must swiftly reverse the decades of neglect.

But right now, it’s not the West leading on this. The UAE’s COP28 presidency is the first aiming to tackle long-standing systemic and structural challenges that have prevented countries in Africa and elsewhere from accessing climate finance.

In mid-August, COP28 President Dr Sultan Al Jaber convened a major meeting in Abu Dhabi involving the World Bank, IMF, and other key financial institutions to create a global roadmap for releasing billions of dollars of funds to climate-vulnerable nations. His unabashed ambition is to create a framework that can unlock “trillions” of dollars.

This is a far cry from the dithering and delay that has characterised previous climate negotiations. Despite making tepid pledges at past UN summits, Western governments have come under fire for failing to deliver even these.

At COP, such fresh thinking on the twin challenges plaguing Africa – climate security and climate finance – could help push stakeholders to reach crucial agreements to deliver tangible action. The upcoming summit is a prime opportunity for the West to put climate security front and centre, to prove to African leaders that we’re committed to our climate financing promises. This decisive move could tip the scales in our favour over Russia.

If the West doesn’t step up to help African nations confront the spiralling climate crisis, we not only risk being shut out of the continent’s future – we risk facing a new era of militarism and extremism that our climate neglect will fatally radicalise. And that is a price too high to pay.

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