Turkey’s Renewable Energy Action Plan showing the way forward in its low-carbon transition

The Turkish weekly website provides a good review of the progress being made to increase the share of renewable energy. Turkey has produced the Renewable Energy Action Plan as part of its approach to follow EU policies. Currently a National Energy Efficiency Action Plan is being prepared and EiD will bring that to readers as soon as it is available.

Turkey moves to boost energy supplies

A new Energy Ministry programme aims to increase Turkey’s energy independence.

Turkey’s first National Renewable Energy Action Plan will increase the share of renewables in the overall energy mix, while also maintaining the security of the nation’s energy supply, officials said.

The plan, which was recently announced by the Energy Ministry, was developed with the support of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). “According to current estimates, an increase of around 90 percent in primary energy demand will take place during the period of 2011-2023. Aside from investments for the creation of new capacity within the field, the source of energy (for instance, the need for local and renewable sources) and maximising energy efficiency are also critical points for Turkey,” the plan stated.

During the launch last month, Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz said the focus was on renewable sources.

“Turkey will continue increasing energy generation from its domestic resources, including from renewable sources such as hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass,” he said. Accordingly, Turkey has committed to obtain 30 percent of its total installed capacity from renewable sources by 2023, the centennial of the republic.

The plan also envisions ways to improve the administrative procedures to encourage investors to embrace the renewable energy business, by avoiding costly and time-consuming licensing and permit procedures.

Volkan Emre, a US-based energy analyst and the founder of the World Energy Security Analysis Platform (Wesap.org), said there were two clear rationales behind this comprehensive renewable energy plan.

“First, the ruling AKP government wants to show its commitment to the EU’s legally-binding targets in EU accession chapters. Secondly, Turkey has energy security concerns stemming from its heavy reliance on natural gas,” Emre told SES Türkiye.

“Over-reliance on one energy source [natural gas], especially when imported primarily from Russia, is inherently risky. Turkey must diversify its energy resources by moving toward renewable energy sources such as hydro, thermal, solar and wind power generation,” he added.

With the latest plan, Turkey aims to add 34 gigawatts (GW) of hydropower, 20 GW of wind energy, 5 GW of solar energy, 1 GW of geothermal and 1 GW of biomass into its energy mix by 2023. The plan includes specific measures to achieve those targets.

According to Emre, the latest effort is a timely push for market players to move in that direction, and the successful implementation of the plan would be beneficial for Turkey’s energy security and rising energy demand.

“While some targets outlined in the plan are achievable, others would require such a dramatic shift in energy consumption that they are not likely to be achieved,” Emre said. “One objective is to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity production to 30 percent of the total demand by 2023. This objective can be achieved if the desired energy efficiency policies are implemented at the same time as the technological and industrial developments needed for increased renewable energy capacity,” he said.

“The largest energy contribution would come from the wind sector, followed by the hydro sector. Given the current market situation, government policies, and legal framework, the goal of reaching 30 percent of the total demand through renewables is achievable,” Emre added.

On the other hand, Emre said the target of 10 percent renewables in the transportation sector is too optimistic.

“Renewables currently make up less than 1 percent of the current energy consumption in the transportation sector. Based on current consumption patterns, supply chain, and technology, it is unlikely that Turkey will reduce its dependence on fossil fuels in the transportation sector,” he said.

“Turkey is heavily dependent on natural gas and coal, and transitioning to different energy sources in the heating sector would be impossible in both the short and the long term. Currently, just 13 percent of the country’s heating energy comes from renewable resources, mostly from hydroelectricity production, and we can expect it to stay under 15 percent for the foreseeable future,” Emre added.

According to Emre, Turkey must act decisively and aggressively with a multi-pronged approach that includes increasing natural gas import capacity, improving energy efficiency, and increasing domestic energy exploration, including the adoption of sustainable and safe nuclear energy technology.

“Turkey cannot be fully independent in the energy sector. Turkey will continue to rely on imported natural gas as a key energy source,” he said. “Both the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline Project and Turkish Stream natural gas pipeline must be completed, and Turkey should seek opportunities to build additional pipelines from Iraqi Kurdistan, Iran and Turkmenistan.”

Gurkan Kumbaroglu, president-elect of the International Association of Energy Economics (IAEE) and a professor at Bogazici University, said the renewable energy plan is following the example of the EU by setting long-term technology-specific target levels and elaborating on policy instruments to achieve those targets.

“The European experience, however, has proven to be troublesome in the electricity sector, leading to criticism by energy economists as the target and policy approach does not rely on market forces, leading to inefficiency and high cost,” Kumbaroglu told SES Türkiye.

Kumbaroglu noted that the plan followed the European approach in limiting greenhouse gas emissions through the trading of emission allowances.

“Allowance prices affect technological choices and thereby constitute a market-based instrument that affects the diffusion of renewable power generation technologies,” he said.

“I support short-term subsidy policies for renewables, but don’t think technology-specific goals and long-term subsidies are sustainable from an economic point of view. Instead, Turkey should adopt a market-based strategy based for introducing an industry-wide emission trading scheme with high allowance prices,” Kumbaroglu added.