This year’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) from the International Energy Agency provides a stark warning that the global energy system is in danger of falling short of the hopes and expectations placed upon it. It does add that advances in technology and efficiency give some reasons for optimism, but sustained political efforts will be essential to change energy trends for the better.
The WEO projects that by 2040, the world’s energy supply mix divides into four almost equal parts: oil, gas, coal and low-carbon sources. Surely, this has to be a concern if we are to listen to the concerns of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change that sees the need to keep to a 2 degrees C objective. The WEO states that urgent action is needed to meet the 2 degree objective and that the IEA will publish a special report in mid-2015 in advance of the climate conference in Paris in late 2015. At that conference, it is hoped a global climate deal can be achieved. This has certainly received a boost by the recent agreement by the US and China.
While the WEO provides projections for the entire energy sector, it is useful to see what it says about energy efficiency. Some of the highlights on energy efficiency from the WEO are:
- In the New Policies Scenario, the energy efficiency policies that have been adopted reduce energy demand by 1,200 Mtoe (compared with the Current Policies Scenario) in 2040. If those measures were not implemented over time, oil demand in 2040 would be 23 mb/d higher (or 22%). Gas demand 17% higher and coal 15% higher.
- Exploiting the full energy efficiency potential in energy-intensive industries would let the EU close the energy cost gap with the US by 10-35%.
- Cross-sectoral energy efficiency policies stimulate overall economic competitiveness by increasing demand for domestically produced goods and increasing disposable household income. Implementing economically viable energy efficiency measures across the economy would lead to an increase of up to 5% in industrial value added and 2% higher household consumption in the major economies by 2030.
- Gains from energy efficiency include lower energy bills, better trade balances and reduced CO2 emissions. Energy efficiency measures over the projection period reduce oil and gas import bills in 2040 by $230 billion in China and oil import bills in the US by $320 billion. In terms of CO2 emissions, energy efficiency delivers about half of the cumulative savings in the New Policies Scenario (compared with the Current Policies Scenario).
More information on the WEO is available from its website.
Energy in Demand - Sustainable Energy - Rod Janssen 